Wednesday, November 25, 2015
Monday, November 23, 2015
aces cracked
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/16809823_E910655EA2
This is kind of a dangerous flop but with such shallow SPR after the flop I think it is best to just bet and call it off. Take a look at this simulation.
Edit · Link · 2+2 · Deuces Cracked · LeggoPoker
Edit · Link · 2+2 · Deuces Cracked · LeggoPoker
This is kind of a dangerous flop but with such shallow SPR after the flop I think it is best to just bet and call it off. Take a look at this simulation.
board: QhJh9c
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| As9dAh5c | 34.68% | 197,936 | 20,336 |
| 15% | 65.32% | 381,728 | 20,336 |
board: QhJh9c
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| As9dAh5c | 39.22% | 1,142,558 | 441,105 |
| 5% | 60.78% | 1,892,317 | 441,105 |
board: QhJh9c
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| As9dAh5c | 35.85% | 2,801,889 | 445,267 |
| 10% | 64.15% | 5,189,004 | 445,267 |
The following hand was not perhaps very interesting but I think instructive.
I pick up K♠8♣A♥A♦ in the BB and the SB, a 40/16/1.0 fish completes so I raise max to .75 cents. 50bb effective. the SB calls. The 1.0 refers to aggression and this low figure generally means a fairly passive opponent. The flop ($1.50) comes K♥6♠2♠ and my opponent checks. Betting here is recommended with the plan to fold to a check raise. Most likely if my passive opponent decides to check raise this will indicate a strong made hand or perhaps a big draw like K + spades. But most of the time my opponent will not be check raising. Aces should be good and my passive opponent may not play stronger holding aggressively allowing me to draw out and extract significant value when I do so. He may also play some decent draws in such a weak passive manner that I am able to win against them as well. Though somewhat draw heavy, my opponent is still tight enough that he is fairly unlikely to have smashed this flop and there is a lot to be said for simply betting because my hand is good enough to demand the pot now.
So I bet 2/3rds pot ($1) and my opponent called. Maybe has 654, or a king, or spades, or a pair, who knows. It is important not to get tunnel vision when trying to put your opponent on a hand. It is not really possible to divine your opponents exact holding; instead allow your understanding of his tendencies to inform your strategic and tactical decisions.
The turn comes perfect, deuce of diamonds, he checks again, and I bet half pot and he folds. My plan should be to bet liberally on turns, perhaps betting all turns.
I pick up K♠8♣A♥A♦ in the BB and the SB, a 40/16/1.0 fish completes so I raise max to .75 cents. 50bb effective. the SB calls. The 1.0 refers to aggression and this low figure generally means a fairly passive opponent. The flop ($1.50) comes K♥6♠2♠ and my opponent checks. Betting here is recommended with the plan to fold to a check raise. Most likely if my passive opponent decides to check raise this will indicate a strong made hand or perhaps a big draw like K + spades. But most of the time my opponent will not be check raising. Aces should be good and my passive opponent may not play stronger holding aggressively allowing me to draw out and extract significant value when I do so. He may also play some decent draws in such a weak passive manner that I am able to win against them as well. Though somewhat draw heavy, my opponent is still tight enough that he is fairly unlikely to have smashed this flop and there is a lot to be said for simply betting because my hand is good enough to demand the pot now.
So I bet 2/3rds pot ($1) and my opponent called. Maybe has 654, or a king, or spades, or a pair, who knows. It is important not to get tunnel vision when trying to put your opponent on a hand. It is not really possible to divine your opponents exact holding; instead allow your understanding of his tendencies to inform your strategic and tactical decisions.
The turn comes perfect, deuce of diamonds, he checks again, and I bet half pot and he folds. My plan should be to bet liberally on turns, perhaps betting all turns.
Aces.
Sitting with $10 in my stack @ .10/.25 I pick up A♣A♠6♥9♠ and a 44/31 lag regular opens for pot. This is a fairly straight forward three bet. I can get 30% of my stack in the pot and plan to stack off liberally after the community cards have been placed down. But then the small blind (65/30 fish) and big blind 83/20 whale decide to take a flop along with the reg lag.
So the flop comes down Q♦J♣T♦. Despite my blockers, chances are I'm dead on this flop.
So the flop comes down Q♦J♣T♦. Despite my blockers, chances are I'm dead on this flop.
board: QdJcTd
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| AcAs6h9s | 4.92% | 28,647 | 1,754 |
| 30% | 35.78% | 203,583 | 22,587 |
| 40% | 31.37% | 177,971 | 20,802 |
| 50% | 27.93% | 158,314 | 18,835 |
So I decided to check back once they all checked to me. The turn came the 9h, and the sb led out and everyone folded.
Playing .10/.25 I pick up 2♥4♥A♦K♦ in the BB and a loose aggressive regular opens the button with a min raise. I estimate that he's opening pretty wide on the button, say top 40% of hands. He's a 36/26 style in general and both blinds are regs. Effective stacks at 40bb. So I decide to call. I'm getting 3:1 on the call, and while my hand is not phenomenal I should be roughly around 50:50 with my opponents range. Take a look at the following simulation :
As you can see by both the simulation and the graph we are in a statistical dead heat and will like and dislike an equal amount of flops. While I do have a positional disadvantage this is more than balanced out by the tremendous odds which my opponents small raise has afforded me.
So I called and got a very good flop, specifically :
3♣5♣6♥ .
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| AhKh4d2d | 49.66% | 289,632 | 16,670 |
| 40% | 50.34% | 293,698 | 16,670 |
or this graph of possible flop outcomes.
As you can see by both the simulation and the graph we are in a statistical dead heat and will like and dislike an equal amount of flops. While I do have a positional disadvantage this is more than balanced out by the tremendous odds which my opponents small raise has afforded me.
So I called and got a very good flop, specifically :
3♣5♣6♥ .
I checked, my opponent bet pot $1. I check raised pot with my straight and my opponent folded.
Thursday, October 29, 2015
AKQ3 ds
I started my day by observing a few .25/.50 tables to try and find my market. When I saw a player post UTG, I decided to join the game.
A few hands in and I pick up A♠K♣Q♣3♠ in the CO, open raise to $1.75 and get flatted by both of the blinds. The blinds in question had given some indication of relative loose play prior to this hand. Stacks are $12.5 effective (25 bbs).
The flop comes down A♥5♦6♣ and both of my opponents check to me. I have only a marginal made holding, TPTK. If I bet and get check raised I will be getting 4:1 to make the call so in this scenario if I determine I will generally hold 20% equity or more then I should call. Betting also means I cross the 'half my stack' threshold. Generally when you put half your stack into the pot you are committed for the rest.
If my opponents have two pair or a set, I am beat. A nuclear (six card) wrap would also be a massive 68% favourite :
while a more common four card wrap would be a coin flip :
A few hands in and I pick up A♠K♣Q♣3♠ in the CO, open raise to $1.75 and get flatted by both of the blinds. The blinds in question had given some indication of relative loose play prior to this hand. Stacks are $12.5 effective (25 bbs).
The flop comes down A♥5♦6♣ and both of my opponents check to me. I have only a marginal made holding, TPTK. If I bet and get check raised I will be getting 4:1 to make the call so in this scenario if I determine I will generally hold 20% equity or more then I should call. Betting also means I cross the 'half my stack' threshold. Generally when you put half your stack into the pot you are committed for the rest.
If my opponents have two pair or a set, I am beat. A nuclear (six card) wrap would also be a massive 68% favourite :
board: Ah6d5c
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7d8d4d3d | 68.05% | 558 | 0 |
| AcKcQs3s | 31.95% | 262 | 0 |
while a more common four card wrap would be a coin flip :
board: Ah6d5c
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| 789T | 52.98% | 111,213 | 0 |
| AcKcQs3s | 47.02% | 98,707 | 0 |
Let's examine the situation in a different manner. How do I fare with this hand, on this flop, against two relatively loose holdings?
board: Ah6d5c
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 29.55% | 168,687 | 17,354 |
| AcKcQs3s | 40.93% | 234,240 | 22,747 |
| 60% | 29.52% | 168,499 | 17,316 |
In the end I decided to bet $4.5 into this $5.25 pot. It's important in poker to stay aggressive. Since I am so short stack I can't be bet off the hand by something like T987, which is never in trouble (that is to say top wrap never has horrible equity on this board, except in the very freak case of being against A987) but also seldom really crushing equity wise. It's helpful to your image to make some stabs with weaker holdings and most likely a bet in this scenario is profitable anyway. Usually your opponents who call with weak holdings won't flop monster hands. I got called by one opponent, and we went to the turn.
Turn $14.25
A♥5♦6♣(6♦)
With only $6.25 effective most likely my money was going in on any turn. This one was actually not bad, giving me two pair, so of course when my opponent checked, I bet. He called. His hand was
J♦3♥8♥4♣ for open ended. This disconnected trouble hand should be folded from the blinds against a late position open and a weak open ended getting slightly more than 2:1 on the flop, with only $6.25 behind, should not be called. Most likely he has only 8 outs so there are 36 unfavourable turn cards and 8 good ones. That's a ratio of 4.5:1. Even on the turn you are now getting slightly more than 3:1 when you need over 4:1 to make the call. But hey, he wanted to gamble, and all the power to him.
The river bricked and I took down the pot.
The river bricked and I took down the pot.
Thursday, August 13, 2015
interview
How would you describe your general strategic approach to playing live plo?
I focus on playing hands cheaply in position against weak opponents (which is usually most of a live PLO table). Since equities run so close pre-flop, I prefer to see flops before committing too much money and hit the pedal hard when I flop a strong hand. Unlike no-limit hold-em, you’ll get paid often, so the fit for fold approach can work well. Also, live PLO is much more passive pre-flop than online PLO and so it’s easy to see a lot of flops, most of which will be multi-way.
Straddling is very common in live PLO games. Do you straddle? Or straddle in a game where a lot of people are straddling, if you are winning? Or straddle to give impression that you are an action player? Will you agree to a round of mandatory straddling if someone suggests it?
I will occasionally straddle to encourage action and also if everyone else is doing it. Looser games tend to be the more lucrative ones. Plus, at every level you will find players uncomfortable playing the larger pots that occur with a straddle and that leads to more mistakes.
A basic axiom of professional poker playing is that you should open raise when you are first in the pot. PLO seems to have many exceptions to this rule. Do you open limp and do you do so on a regular basis? Why or why not?
My strategy seems to go against conventional poker wisdom but it works for me. A typical raise never thins the field in live PLO, it only serves to create a bigger pot. So I never raise for isolation and rarely raise unless I am in late position with a premium hand. And I do this knowing that the hand will still likely be multi-way, but I stand a good chance of winning and want to play for a bigger pot. I rarely open limp in no-limit hold’em, but I have no problem doing this in live PLO.
What is your buy in strategy?
I buy in for the max to have my opponents covered. The idea is that by playing well I can hopefully win the max with my good hands and avoid stacking off with my bad ones.
One general rule of thumb is that if you can get 33% of your stack all in preflop with aces, you should do so, and then just bet the flop afterwards. Do you follow this rule? Do you have any additions to it, perhaps on the class of aces (always raising AA44 ds, for example, or only committing with AAA7 rainbow if you can get > 70% of your stack in or whatever?)
If I can get 33% in preflop with any aces, then a majority of the time I will follow through and jam the flop unless it is extremely wet and I completely missed. However, I play mainly in deep stacked games where the opportunity to get this much in preflop does not occur that often. And a pair in your hand makes it harder to hit a good flop than a run-down hand so I prefer to keep pots smaller preflop without premium aces or if I’m out of position.
What is the weakest hand you will typically play from UTG in a loose passive afternoon game?
I try to avoid playing anything but premium hands UTG, even in a loose passive game. Position is everything so I don’t want to waste money pre-flop out of position.
What is the weakest hand you will open with from MP in a hyper aggro over night game?
If there are lots of 3 bets going on then I will only raise with a hand I am comfortable calling a 4-bet. And more often I will just limp expecting a raise in order to see the flop for less money than if I had bet and had to call a 4-bet.
Do you have any rules or guidelines governing your quitting decisions?
If I catch myself playing too many hands because I’m bored I’ll try to call it quits. Other than that I usually limit myself to 6 hour sessions because I know I tend lose focus any longer than that.
In your games have you noticed or suspected any cheating, collusion or otherwise?
In a live poker room there is occasionally some light collusion. Usually this is just the regulars soft playing each other or checking down hands when no one else is in the pot. I steer clear of this myself, but it is usually not worth fighting about or calling the floor over and making enemies.
The variance in PLO can be sick. How do you handle it and how do you handle the swings?
You definitely have to start with a bankroll big enough to handle the swings. That said, there’s a myth that you have to jam the flop every time you think you’re slightly better than a coin flip. Sometimes the smarter play is to avoid those coin flips and wait till the turn to bloat the pot if you become more of a favorite. Play a patient game and you will see more than enough opportunities to get your money in good.
What are concrete steps that you take to avoid tilt or playing badly?
If I lose a big pot, many times I’ll immediately step outside for some fresh air and to recalibrate.
Is PLO the game of the future?
For sure. Aside from the fact that 4 cards are much more entertaining than 2, there are so many weak, uneducated PLO players out there and so much opportunity to make a killing. Once you try it, you’ll never want to go back to No-Limit Hold-em.
-Geoff from www.CountingOuts.com
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