This is kind of a dangerous flop but with such shallow SPR after the flop I think it is best to just bet and call it off. Take a look at this simulation.
board: QhJh9c
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| As9dAh5c | 34.68% | 197,936 | 20,336 |
| 15% | 65.32% | 381,728 | 20,336 |
board: QhJh9c
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| As9dAh5c | 39.22% | 1,142,558 | 441,105 |
| 5% | 60.78% | 1,892,317 | 441,105 |
board: QhJh9c
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| As9dAh5c | 35.85% | 2,801,889 | 445,267 |
| 10% | 64.15% | 5,189,004 | 445,267 |
Preflop is definitely the recommend play. While I do often open for less than pot it is nice to be able to get an appreciable amount of money in pre which happens with pot sizing. But whatever the sizing I think it is clear to open initially and obvious to four bet to $9.05 with $23.43 behind. This is a great situation and my opponent is going to be in bad shape most of the time.
ReplyDeleteOn the QJ9 flop I am a dog but I think I usually have enough equity still to get it in.