A few hands in and I pick up A♠K♣Q♣3♠ in the CO, open raise to $1.75 and get flatted by both of the blinds. The blinds in question had given some indication of relative loose play prior to this hand. Stacks are $12.5 effective (25 bbs).
The flop comes down A♥5♦6♣ and both of my opponents check to me. I have only a marginal made holding, TPTK. If I bet and get check raised I will be getting 4:1 to make the call so in this scenario if I determine I will generally hold 20% equity or more then I should call. Betting also means I cross the 'half my stack' threshold. Generally when you put half your stack into the pot you are committed for the rest.
If my opponents have two pair or a set, I am beat. A nuclear (six card) wrap would also be a massive 68% favourite :
board: Ah6d5c
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7d8d4d3d | 68.05% | 558 | 0 |
| AcKcQs3s | 31.95% | 262 | 0 |
while a more common four card wrap would be a coin flip :
board: Ah6d5c
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| 789T | 52.98% | 111,213 | 0 |
| AcKcQs3s | 47.02% | 98,707 | 0 |
Let's examine the situation in a different manner. How do I fare with this hand, on this flop, against two relatively loose holdings?
board: Ah6d5c
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 29.55% | 168,687 | 17,354 |
| AcKcQs3s | 40.93% | 234,240 | 22,747 |
| 60% | 29.52% | 168,499 | 17,316 |
In the end I decided to bet $4.5 into this $5.25 pot. It's important in poker to stay aggressive. Since I am so short stack I can't be bet off the hand by something like T987, which is never in trouble (that is to say top wrap never has horrible equity on this board, except in the very freak case of being against A987) but also seldom really crushing equity wise. It's helpful to your image to make some stabs with weaker holdings and most likely a bet in this scenario is profitable anyway. Usually your opponents who call with weak holdings won't flop monster hands. I got called by one opponent, and we went to the turn.
Turn $14.25
A♥5♦6♣(6♦)
With only $6.25 effective most likely my money was going in on any turn. This one was actually not bad, giving me two pair, so of course when my opponent checked, I bet. He called. His hand was
J♦3♥8♥4♣ for open ended. This disconnected trouble hand should be folded from the blinds against a late position open and a weak open ended getting slightly more than 2:1 on the flop, with only $6.25 behind, should not be called. Most likely he has only 8 outs so there are 36 unfavourable turn cards and 8 good ones. That's a ratio of 4.5:1. Even on the turn you are now getting slightly more than 3:1 when you need over 4:1 to make the call. But hey, he wanted to gamble, and all the power to him.
The river bricked and I took down the pot.
The river bricked and I took down the pot.
