this is not how to play jacks

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/16823644_40564DD87A

aces cracked

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/16809823_E910655EA2

This is kind of a dangerous flop but with such shallow SPR after the flop I think it is best to just bet and call it off.  Take a look at this simulation.

Omaha Hi Simulation ? 
600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: QhJh9c

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
As9dAh5c	34.68%	197,936	20,336
15%	65.32%	381,728	20,336

Edit · Link · 2+2 · Deuces Cracked · LeggoPoker 

Omaha Hi Simulation ? 
3,475,980 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QhJh9c

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
As9dAh5c	39.22%	1,142,558	441,105
5%	60.78%	1,892,317	441,105

Edit · Link · 2+2 · Deuces Cracked · LeggoPoker 

Omaha Hi Simulation ? 
8,436,160 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QhJh9c

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
As9dAh5c	35.85%	2,801,889	445,267
10%	64.15%	5,189,004	445,267

The following hand was not perhaps very interesting but I think instructive.

I pick up K♠8♣A♥A♦ in the BB and the SB, a 40/16/1.0 fish completes so I raise max to .75 cents.  50bb effective.  the SB calls.  The 1.0 refers to aggression and this low figure generally means a fairly passive opponent.  The flop ($1.50) comes K♥6♠2♠ and my opponent checks.  Betting here is recommended with the plan to fold to a check raise.  Most likely if my passive opponent decides to check raise this will indicate a strong made hand or perhaps a big draw like K + spades.  But most of the time my opponent will not be check raising.  Aces should be good and my passive opponent may not play stronger holding aggressively allowing me to draw out and extract significant value when I do so.  He may also play some decent draws in such a weak passive manner that I am able to win against them as well.  Though somewhat draw heavy, my opponent is still tight enough that he is fairly unlikely to have smashed this flop and there is a lot to be said for simply betting because my hand is good enough to demand the pot now.

So I bet 2/3rds pot ($1) and my opponent called.  Maybe has 654, or a king, or spades, or a pair, who knows.  It is important not to get tunnel vision when trying to put your opponent on a hand.  It is not really possible to divine your opponents exact holding; instead allow your understanding of his tendencies to inform your strategic and tactical decisions.


The turn comes perfect, deuce of diamonds, he checks again, and I bet half pot and he folds.  My plan should be to bet liberally on turns, perhaps betting all turns.

Aces.

Sitting with $10 in my stack @ .10/.25 I pick up A♣A♠6♥9♠  and a 44/31 lag regular opens for pot. This is a fairly straight forward three bet.  I can get 30% of my stack in the pot and plan to stack off liberally after the community cards have been placed down.  But then the small blind (65/30 fish) and big blind 83/20 whale decide to take a flop along with the reg lag.

So the flop comes down Q♦J♣T♦.  Despite my blockers, chances are I'm dead on this flop.

board: QdJcTd

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
AcAs6h9s	4.92%	28,647	1,754
30%	35.78%	203,583	22,587
40%	31.37%	177,971	20,802
50%	27.93%	158,314	18,835

So I decided to check back once they all checked to me.  The turn came the 9h, and the sb led out and everyone folded.

Playing .10/.25 I pick up 2♥4♥A♦K♦ in the BB and a loose aggressive regular opens the button with a min raise.  I estimate that he's opening pretty wide on the button, say top 40% of hands.  He's a 36/26 style in general and both blinds are regs.  Effective stacks at 40bb. So I decide to call.  I'm getting 3:1 on the call, and while my hand is not phenomenal I should be roughly around 50:50 with my opponents range.  Take a look at the following simulation :

Omaha Hi Simulation ? 

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
AhKh4d2d	49.66%	289,632	16,670
40%	50.34%	293,698	16,670

or this graph of possible flop outcomes.

As you can see by both the simulation and the graph we are in a statistical dead heat and will like and dislike an equal amount of flops.  While I do have a positional disadvantage this is more than balanced out by the tremendous odds which my opponents small raise has afforded me.


So I called and got a very good flop, specifically :

3♣5♣6♥ .

I checked, my opponent bet pot $1.  I check raised pot with my straight and my opponent folded. 

AKQ3 ds

I started my day by observing a few .25/.50 tables to try and find my market.  When I saw a player post UTG, I decided to join the game.



A few hands in and I pick up A♠K♣Q♣3♠ in the CO, open raise to $1.75 and get flatted by both of the blinds.  The blinds in question had given some indication of relative loose play prior to this hand.  Stacks are $12.5 effective (25 bbs).

The flop comes down A♥5♦6♣ and both of my opponents check to me.  I have only a marginal made holding, TPTK.  If I bet and get check raised I will be getting 4:1 to make the call so in this scenario if I determine I will generally hold 20% equity or more then I should call.  Betting also means I cross the 'half my stack' threshold.  Generally when you put half your stack into the pot you are committed for the rest.

If my opponents have two pair or a set, I am beat.  A nuclear (six card) wrap would also be a massive 68% favourite :

Omaha Hi Simulation ? 
820 trials (Exhaustive)

board: Ah6d5c

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
7d8d4d3d	68.05%	558	0
AcKcQs3s	31.95%	262	0

while a more common four card wrap would be a coin flip :

board: Ah6d5c

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
789T	52.98%	111,213	0
AcKcQs3s	47.02%	98,707	0

Let's examine the situation in a different manner.  How do I fare with this hand, on this flop, against two relatively loose holdings?

board: Ah6d5c

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
60%	29.55%	168,687	17,354
AcKcQs3s	40.93%	234,240	22,747
60%	29.52%	168,499	17,316

In the end I decided to bet $4.5 into this $5.25 pot.  It's important in poker to stay aggressive.  Since I am so short stack I can't be bet off the hand by something like T987, which is never in trouble (that is to say top wrap never has horrible equity on this board, except in the very freak case of being against A987) but also seldom really crushing equity wise. It's helpful to your image to make some stabs with weaker holdings and most likely a bet in this scenario is profitable anyway. Usually your opponents who call with weak holdings won't flop monster hands.  I got called by one opponent, and we went to the turn.

Turn $14.25

 A♥5♦6♣(6♦)

With only $6.25 effective most likely my money was going in on any turn.  This one was actually not bad, giving me two pair, so of course when my opponent checked, I bet.  He called.  His hand was 

J♦3♥8♥4♣ for open ended.  This disconnected trouble hand should be folded from the blinds against a late position open and a weak open ended getting slightly more than 2:1 on the flop, with only $6.25 behind, should not be called.  Most likely he has only 8 outs so there are 36 unfavourable turn cards and 8 good ones.  That's a ratio of 4.5:1.  Even on the turn you are now getting slightly more than 3:1 when you need over 4:1 to make the call. But hey, he wanted to gamble, and all the power to him.

The river bricked and I took down the pot.

interview

How would you describe your general strategic approach to playing live plo?

I focus on playing hands cheaply in position against weak opponents (which is usually most of a live PLO table). Since equities run so close pre-flop, I prefer to see flops before committing too much money and hit the pedal hard when I flop a strong hand. Unlike no-limit hold-em, you’ll get paid often, so the fit for fold approach can work well. Also, live PLO is much more passive pre-flop than online PLO and so it’s easy to see a lot of flops, most of which will be multi-way.

Straddling is very common in live PLO games. Do you straddle? Or straddle in a game where a lot of people are straddling, if you are winning? Or straddle to give impression that you are an action player? Will you agree to a round of mandatory straddling if someone suggests it? 

I will occasionally straddle to encourage action and also if everyone else is doing it. Looser games tend to be the more lucrative ones. Plus, at every level you will find players uncomfortable playing the larger pots that occur with a straddle and that leads to more mistakes.

A basic axiom of professional poker playing is that you should open raise when you are first in the pot. PLO seems to have many exceptions to this rule. Do you open limp and do you do so on a regular basis? Why or why not?


My strategy seems to go against conventional poker wisdom but it works for me. A typical raise never thins the field in live PLO, it only serves to create a bigger pot. So I never raise for isolation and rarely raise unless I am in late position with a premium hand. And I do this knowing that the hand will still likely be multi-way, but I stand a good chance of winning and want to play for a bigger pot. I rarely open limp in no-limit hold’em, but I have no problem doing this in live PLO.

What is your buy in strategy?
I buy in for the max to have my opponents covered. The idea is that by playing well I can hopefully win the max with my good hands and avoid stacking off with my bad ones.



One general rule of thumb is that if you can get 33% of your stack all in preflop with aces, you should do so, and then just bet the flop afterwards. Do you follow this rule? Do you have any additions to it, perhaps on the class of aces (always raising AA44 ds, for example, or only committing with AAA7 rainbow if you can get > 70% of your stack in or whatever?)

If I can get 33% in preflop with any aces, then a majority of the time I will follow through and jam the flop unless it is extremely wet and I completely missed. However, I play mainly in deep stacked games where the opportunity to get this much in preflop does not occur that often. And a pair in your hand makes it harder to hit a good flop than a run-down hand so I prefer to keep pots smaller preflop without premium aces or if I’m out of position.

What is the weakest hand you will typically play from UTG in a loose passive afternoon game?

I try to avoid playing anything but premium hands UTG, even in a loose passive game. Position is everything so I don’t want to waste money pre-flop out of position.

What is the weakest hand you will open with from MP in a hyper aggro over night game?

If there are lots of 3 bets going on then I will only raise with a hand I am comfortable calling a 4-bet. And more often I will just limp expecting a raise in order to see the flop for less money than if I had bet and had to call a 4-bet.

Do you have any rules or guidelines governing your quitting decisions?

If I catch myself playing too many hands because I’m bored I’ll try to call it quits. Other than that I usually limit myself to 6 hour sessions because I know I tend lose focus any longer than that. 

In your games have you noticed or suspected any cheating, collusion or otherwise?

In a live poker room there is occasionally some light collusion. Usually this is just the regulars soft playing each other or checking down hands when no one else is in the pot. I steer clear of this myself, but it is usually not worth fighting about or calling the floor over and making enemies.

The variance in PLO can be sick. How do you handle it and how do you handle the swings? 

You definitely have to start with a bankroll big enough to handle the swings. That said, there’s a myth that you have to jam the flop every time you think you’re slightly better than a coin flip. Sometimes the smarter play is to avoid those coin flips and wait till the turn to bloat the pot if you become more of a favorite. Play a patient game and you will see more than enough opportunities to get your money in good.

What are concrete steps that you take to avoid tilt or playing badly?
If I lose a big pot, many times I’ll immediately step outside for some fresh air and to recalibrate. 


Is PLO the game of the future?

For sure. Aside from the fact that 4 cards are much more entertaining than 2, there are so many weak, uneducated PLO players out there and so much opportunity to make a killing. Once you try it, you’ll never want to go back to No-Limit Hold-em. 
-Geoff from www.CountingOuts.com 

defend A6o in the BB?

While playing a sat. into the sunday storm I encountered this situation on the first hand.  I folded but in retrospect I wish I had called.  Folding is correct if our opponent is shoving 15% of hands but incorrect if he is shoving 20% of hands.

Hold'em Simulation ? 
282,530,160 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
15%	62.56%	168,672,942	16,155,117
As6c	37.44%	97,702,101	16,155,117

Hold'em Simulation ? 
393,829,920 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
20%	58.72%	220,060,198	22,367,722
As6c	41.28%	151,402,000	22,367,722

Against looser shoves we do better.  It is possible that our opponent is shoving a polarized range; propokertools hand rankings and mostly based on high card strength although KQ out ranks A9 and both outrank 66 so there is some consideration given to other factors. Ignoring this for now the question becomes what % of hands is our opponent shoving in this scenario? The hold'em resources calculator suggests 22.2% shoving range of 

"22.2%, 22+ A2s+ ATo+ K7s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J9s+ T8s+ 98s".

Hold'em Simulation ? 
306,502,416 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
22+, Ax2x+, AyTx+, Kx7x+, KxTy+, Qx8x+, QxTy+, Jx9x+, Tx8x+, 9x8x	59.07%	176,897,795	8,283,354
Ac6h	40.93%	121,321,267	8,283,354

Actually against this exact range we are just shy of the exact equity needed to make the call. It would essentially be a break even call. I think you probably need a slight amount of positive expected value to make calling better than folding since ceteris paribus you would want to choose the situation with less variance. So perhaps it was correct to fold vs UTG in this situation but vs any other position this should be a slam dunk call.

235 FPP sat to sunday storm

Playing in a 235 FPP hyper turbo sat into the Sunday Storm I observed one of my opponents open jam 56 suited from the HJ on the first hand. Thinking this was a mistake I decided to do some analysis.

First I plugged the scenario into the holdemresources.net ICM calculator which advocated a jam of this range from UTG+1 aka HJ in this scenario.

31.8%, 22+ A2s+ A4o+ K4s+ KTo+ Q6s+ QTo+ J7s+ JTo T7s+ 97s+ 87s 76s
So this calculator thinks 56hh was too loose but only by a hair. 

How often are the CO, BU, SB and BB going to call this jam?  What will HJ's average equity be in this situation? How often will the HJ take down the 135 in chips immediately? How much of an advantage is there in being at 635 while everyone else is at 490 or less?


The calculator gives ranges of 8.7%, 10.4%, 10.9% and 14.3% for CO, BU, SB and BB respectively. 
8.7%, 77+ A9s+ ATo+
10.4%, 66+ A8s+ A9o+
10.9%, 55+ A8s+ A9o+
14.3%, 44+ A6s+ A8o+ KJs+ KQo

some of these times people will over call but that doesn't matter for the question of how often will the 135 will be taken down. Are these ranges accurate?  Do they describe population tendencies at the 235 FPP sat level?  I think so. I feel like these are close, not exact, but close to how I would play and how most players at this level play.

the likelihood each player will fold :
91.3
89.6
89.1
85.7


multiplying the inverse % (the likelihood that each individual player folds) together we find that you are going to take down the 135 chips 62.46% of the time.  38% you will get called and on average will be about 33% to win, or wagering at a 33% disadvantage (your opponents equity minus your equity = their edge, 66 - 33 = 33).  So you will be taking a 165 loss in chip ev. I have ignored the fact that you could get called twice.  When you get called twice you will be around 25% getting 2:1.  I have also ignored the fact that there are blinds and antes in the pot when called, so your actual expected chip loss is lesser.

All in all the strategy looks sound; my analysis is definitely in complete.

A brief but instructive hand

Player 5 here is a loose aggressive winning regular.

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/14993976_6BE3DD49F9

My opponent opens from the SB and I defend in position getting 2:1 with an average holding.  My hand has some high card strength and a nut flush possibility but the dangling three is a liability. On the flop when my opponent checks it is likely that he has given up on the hand and surely he will fold more than the 33% of the time my half pot bet requires to show a profit.  It's also possible that AQ high is the best hand right now and I do have a gutshot as well. It's very dangerous in omaha to play weak holdings out of position and often the sensible play in that situation is to simply check and give up on the hand. In general you should be attacking when your opponent shows weakness, especially when heads up.

pushbot

Two questions. In the below situation should I be reshoving vs 6 bb stack open shove from CO and should I open shove vs BB?  We are slightly above the '10 bb' threshold but not if you adjust for antes.  I think this is around the bubble as well, FWIW.  My suspicious is that MingRey will be shoving wide.  We're actually a dog vs a 40% shoving range.  Our opponent has to be shoving 60% before we're a % favourite.  However there is basically 3600 extra in the pot (our 625, ur opponents 625, the 1250 from the BB and the antes) so we're getting around 1.5:1 and have the direct odds vs a tight 20% shoving range (simulations below).  Unfortunately some % of the time BB will wake up with a big hand and we're a huge dog.  I expect him to call a lot of the hands that have us crushed, although maybe something like A8 or 66 will find a fold vs shove reshove (these hands are almost certainly calling if we open jam the SB, indeed some hands like KQ or 22 might call).  Actually I expect our opponent to be jamming more like 50% given his aggressive statistics and the fact that this is proper play at this stack size.  So I do think it's worth the risk to over jam vs the short stacks push.

Hold'em Simulation ? 
398,966,832 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
As4h	40.99%	151,195,311	24,671,138
20%	59.01%	223,100,383	24,671,138

Edit · Link · 2+2 · Deuces Cracked · LeggoPoker 

Hold'em Simulation ? 
1,236,283,488 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
As4h	51.62%	599,910,990	76,399,193
60%	48.38%	559,973,305	76,399,193

Edit · Link · 2+2 · Deuces Cracked · LeggoPoker 

Hold'em Simulation ? 
792,796,752 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
As4h	46.90%	335,079,881	73,445,346
40%	53.10%	384,271,525	73,445,346

o/8 call

Down to three in an o/8 SNG I got three bet by a tight aggressive player.

I have As7s3d5c.  I'm getting just over 1.25:1 so I need around 44% equity to make the call.

My opponents stats were tight aggressive.  Something like 25/17.  This was his first three bet but this stats are over an insignificant sample size (15 hands). Still they paint a picture of my opponent as tight and aggressive.

vs a 15% shoving range I have just about enough odds to call (source, propokertools o/8 simulator)

As7s3d5c	44.80%	161,466	249,227	25,021	166,546	53,268
15%	55.20%	230,839	325,752	25,021	92,629	53,26

vs a 10% shoving range

As7s3d5c	43.57%	154,082	249,328	20,869	156,283	53,242
10%	56.43%	237,156	329,803	20,869	103,090	53,242

vs 5%

As7s3d5c	41.38%	145,071	238,753	13,877	156,863	46,088
5%	58.62%	252,516	347,370	13,877	107,990	46,088

I am the short stack and kind of need to make a move.  I think over all it is close but perhaps slightly too loose.  Not surprisingly my opponent had A2j5 and held up.  Le sigh.

nash review 44

Plugging the preceding situation into my handy nash calculator it tells me to shove and this was my decision in game (no one called).  There are only four players behind me, since one is sitting out, but I do have around 20x the BB and there is only one short stack behind me so I do not think this is cut and dried.  One benefit of shoving is that it prevents someone from reraising three betting me.  I certainly do not want a hand like 98s to three bet me to 1500 and then be getting just under 2:1 if I shove, unless of course they are three bet folding. There is 600 to win immediately, or 1/8th of my stack and I likely have the best hand most of the time. Also my opponents can and perhaps should fold 55-99 to my shove.  The calculator suggests this :

5.9%, 88+ AJs+ AQo+

as a calling range for the player immediately after me in the CO.  I excluded the high jack from the simulation since he is sitting out.  One advantage to raise folding is that I can get away from the hand if it goes raise, reraise behind me, as this will make it pretty likely (though not a lock) that someone behind me has a bigger pair, although with only four people left to act this scenario is somewhat unlikely. 

I'm not sure what the cut off is for push / fold decisions, in terms of BB's in your stack.  My 19 bb stack looks somewhat smaller if you adjust for antes (12BB stack adjusted). My guess is that this is right on the border of where we can play push fold and where we should simply open for 2x. The tournament is also a knockout, so there is a premium for eliminating players, but I do not think that is a significant factor in this particular situation, with only one player shorter than me still to act. It would typically suggest slightly looser play vs stacks which are shorter than you.

The following chart from Wizard Of Odds gives the probability of a pair being beaten
http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/texas-hold-em/probability-pairs/

Probability Pair Beaten by Higher Pair

PAIR	2 PL.	3 PL.	4 PL.	5 PL.	6 PL.	7 PL.	8 PL.	9 PL.	10 PL.
KK	0.49%	0.977%	1.462%	1.945%	2.425%	2.903%	3.379%	3.852%	4.323%
QQ	0.98%	1.95%	2.91%	3.861%	4.803%	5.735%	6.659%	7.573%	8.479%
JJ	1.469%	2.917%	4.344%	5.749%	7.134%	8.499%	9.843%	11.168%	12.473%
TT	1.959%	3.88%	5.763%	7.609%	9.42%	11.194%	12.934%	14.64%	16.312%
99	2.449%	4.838%	7.168%	9.442%	11.66%	13.823%	15.934%	17.992%	20.001%
88	2.939%	5.791%	8.56%	11.247%	13.855%	16.387%	18.844%	21.229%	23.544%
77	3.429%	6.74%	9.937%	13.025%	16.007%	18.887%	21.668%	24.353%	26.947%
66	3.918%	7.683%	11.301%	14.776%	18.115%	21.324%	24.407%	27.369%	30.215%
55	4.408%	8.622%	12.65%	16.501%	20.181%	23.7%	27.063%	30.279%	33.352%
44	4.898%	9.556%	13.986%	18.199%	22.205%	26.016%	29.64%	33.086%	36.363%
33	5.388%	10.485%	15.308%	19.871%	24.188%	28.273%	32.137%	35.794%	39.253%
22	5.878%	11.41%	16.617%	21.517%	26.13%	30.472%	34.559%	38.405%	42.025%

13.986% is the number for our situation, 44 beaten by 4 players.  That makes us a 6:1 favourite to take down the pot and a 1:6 underdog to lose 60% of our stack (our opponent has a 60% edge on us as an 80:20 favourite).  Actually that's slightly facile analysis, we also have a 20% share of the current pot, so 60% of our stack but gain 100 from the pot.   So 1 time in 6 we lose roughly 3k (slightly less) and 5 times in 6 we win 600.  So it's break evenish.  Also 1 time in 4 we lose less, vs the sb.  and 55-88 might fold.  

So shoving is almost certainly +EV.  But what about raise folding or raise getting it in?  This is a more complicated analysis.  If we raise fold, we might get bluffed, or might induce a hand like 8s9s which actually has us beat 52.75% : 47.25%  to play.  There is also a chance a might three bet fold vs us, a real coup but a fairly unlikely scenario at these stack sizes.  One nice approach to taking a minimum raise with this hand is that we can take the same approach with bigger pairs, which we would like.  The strength of the nash approach, that you will take it down frequently, becomes a problem when you have a stronger hand like AA. We should take the same approach with AA as we do with 44, whatever we decide, lest we leave ourselves exploitable to our observant opponents. Even if this consideration is lesser in our present scenario it is important to build a consistent strategy for other games where this consideration becomes predominant.  We need to build healthy poker habits now.

Our stack size does seem slightly too large for the nash approach.  I'm not sure if there is a hard and fast rule for these scenarios.  Certainly 10x the BB or less qualifies and 20x the BB seems to large.  In between perhaps there is a grey area. This is a regular tournament, not a turbo, and that urges a slightly more patient approach.  We could also raise call vs sb and raise fold vs the other players, or raise fold vs co but raise get it in vs other players, especially BB, who has some incentive to push (no players behind him and money already in the pot). I suspect it may be better to simply shove at this stack size and this position but that any deeper and I must abandon Nash but I am certainly unsure of this conclusion.