Monday, November 23, 2015

Playing .10/.25 I pick up 2♥4♥A♦K♦ in the BB and a loose aggressive regular opens the button with a min raise.  I estimate that he's opening pretty wide on the button, say top 40% of hands.  He's a 36/26 style in general and both blinds are regs.  Effective stacks at 40bb. So I decide to call.  I'm getting 3:1 on the call, and while my hand is not phenomenal I should be roughly around 50:50 with my opponents range.  Take a look at the following simulation :

Omaha Hi Simulation ? 

600,000 trials (Randomized)
           HandEquityWinsTies
AhKh4d2d49.66%289,63216,670
40%50.34%293,69816,670

or this graph of possible flop outcomes.


As you can see by both the simulation and the graph we are in a statistical dead heat and will like and dislike an equal amount of flops.  While I do have a positional disadvantage this is more than balanced out by the tremendous odds which my opponents small raise has afforded me.


So I called and got a very good flop, specifically :

3♣5♣6♥ .

I checked, my opponent bet pot $1.  I check raised pot with my straight and my opponent folded. 

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