defend A6o in the BB?

While playing a sat. into the sunday storm I encountered this situation on the first hand.  I folded but in retrospect I wish I had called.  Folding is correct if our opponent is shoving 15% of hands but incorrect if he is shoving 20% of hands.

Hold'em Simulation ? 
282,530,160 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
15%	62.56%	168,672,942	16,155,117
As6c	37.44%	97,702,101	16,155,117

Hold'em Simulation ? 
393,829,920 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
20%	58.72%	220,060,198	22,367,722
As6c	41.28%	151,402,000	22,367,722

Against looser shoves we do better.  It is possible that our opponent is shoving a polarized range; propokertools hand rankings and mostly based on high card strength although KQ out ranks A9 and both outrank 66 so there is some consideration given to other factors. Ignoring this for now the question becomes what % of hands is our opponent shoving in this scenario? The hold'em resources calculator suggests 22.2% shoving range of 

"22.2%, 22+ A2s+ ATo+ K7s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J9s+ T8s+ 98s".

Hold'em Simulation ? 
306,502,416 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
22+, Ax2x+, AyTx+, Kx7x+, KxTy+, Qx8x+, QxTy+, Jx9x+, Tx8x+, 9x8x	59.07%	176,897,795	8,283,354
Ac6h	40.93%	121,321,267	8,283,354

Actually against this exact range we are just shy of the exact equity needed to make the call. It would essentially be a break even call. I think you probably need a slight amount of positive expected value to make calling better than folding since ceteris paribus you would want to choose the situation with less variance. So perhaps it was correct to fold vs UTG in this situation but vs any other position this should be a slam dunk call.

235 FPP sat to sunday storm

Playing in a 235 FPP hyper turbo sat into the Sunday Storm I observed one of my opponents open jam 56 suited from the HJ on the first hand. Thinking this was a mistake I decided to do some analysis.

First I plugged the scenario into the holdemresources.net ICM calculator which advocated a jam of this range from UTG+1 aka HJ in this scenario.

31.8%, 22+ A2s+ A4o+ K4s+ KTo+ Q6s+ QTo+ J7s+ JTo T7s+ 97s+ 87s 76s
So this calculator thinks 56hh was too loose but only by a hair. 

How often are the CO, BU, SB and BB going to call this jam?  What will HJ's average equity be in this situation? How often will the HJ take down the 135 in chips immediately? How much of an advantage is there in being at 635 while everyone else is at 490 or less?


The calculator gives ranges of 8.7%, 10.4%, 10.9% and 14.3% for CO, BU, SB and BB respectively. 
8.7%, 77+ A9s+ ATo+
10.4%, 66+ A8s+ A9o+
10.9%, 55+ A8s+ A9o+
14.3%, 44+ A6s+ A8o+ KJs+ KQo

some of these times people will over call but that doesn't matter for the question of how often will the 135 will be taken down. Are these ranges accurate?  Do they describe population tendencies at the 235 FPP sat level?  I think so. I feel like these are close, not exact, but close to how I would play and how most players at this level play.

the likelihood each player will fold :
91.3
89.6
89.1
85.7


multiplying the inverse % (the likelihood that each individual player folds) together we find that you are going to take down the 135 chips 62.46% of the time.  38% you will get called and on average will be about 33% to win, or wagering at a 33% disadvantage (your opponents equity minus your equity = their edge, 66 - 33 = 33).  So you will be taking a 165 loss in chip ev. I have ignored the fact that you could get called twice.  When you get called twice you will be around 25% getting 2:1.  I have also ignored the fact that there are blinds and antes in the pot when called, so your actual expected chip loss is lesser.

All in all the strategy looks sound; my analysis is definitely in complete.

A brief but instructive hand

Player 5 here is a loose aggressive winning regular.

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/14993976_6BE3DD49F9

My opponent opens from the SB and I defend in position getting 2:1 with an average holding.  My hand has some high card strength and a nut flush possibility but the dangling three is a liability. On the flop when my opponent checks it is likely that he has given up on the hand and surely he will fold more than the 33% of the time my half pot bet requires to show a profit.  It's also possible that AQ high is the best hand right now and I do have a gutshot as well. It's very dangerous in omaha to play weak holdings out of position and often the sensible play in that situation is to simply check and give up on the hand. In general you should be attacking when your opponent shows weakness, especially when heads up.