235 FPP sat to sunday storm

Playing in a 235 FPP hyper turbo sat into the Sunday Storm I observed one of my opponents open jam 56 suited from the HJ on the first hand. Thinking this was a mistake I decided to do some analysis.

First I plugged the scenario into the holdemresources.net ICM calculator which advocated a jam of this range from UTG+1 aka HJ in this scenario.

31.8%, 22+ A2s+ A4o+ K4s+ KTo+ Q6s+ QTo+ J7s+ JTo T7s+ 97s+ 87s 76s
So this calculator thinks 56hh was too loose but only by a hair. 

How often are the CO, BU, SB and BB going to call this jam?  What will HJ's average equity be in this situation? How often will the HJ take down the 135 in chips immediately? How much of an advantage is there in being at 635 while everyone else is at 490 or less?


The calculator gives ranges of 8.7%, 10.4%, 10.9% and 14.3% for CO, BU, SB and BB respectively. 
8.7%, 77+ A9s+ ATo+
10.4%, 66+ A8s+ A9o+
10.9%, 55+ A8s+ A9o+
14.3%, 44+ A6s+ A8o+ KJs+ KQo

some of these times people will over call but that doesn't matter for the question of how often will the 135 will be taken down. Are these ranges accurate?  Do they describe population tendencies at the 235 FPP sat level?  I think so. I feel like these are close, not exact, but close to how I would play and how most players at this level play.

the likelihood each player will fold :
91.3
89.6
89.1
85.7


multiplying the inverse % (the likelihood that each individual player folds) together we find that you are going to take down the 135 chips 62.46% of the time.  38% you will get called and on average will be about 33% to win, or wagering at a 33% disadvantage (your opponents equity minus your equity = their edge, 66 - 33 = 33).  So you will be taking a 165 loss in chip ev. I have ignored the fact that you could get called twice.  When you get called twice you will be around 25% getting 2:1.  I have also ignored the fact that there are blinds and antes in the pot when called, so your actual expected chip loss is lesser.

All in all the strategy looks sound; my analysis is definitely in complete.