Saturday, July 18, 2015

defend A6o in the BB?

While playing a sat. into the sunday storm I encountered this situation on the first hand.  I folded but in retrospect I wish I had called.  Folding is correct if our opponent is shoving 15% of hands but incorrect if he is shoving 20% of hands.


Hold'em Simulation ? 
282,530,160 trials (Exhaustive)
HandEquityWinsTies
15%62.56%168,672,94216,155,117
As6c37.44%97,702,10116,155,117



Hold'em Simulation ? 
393,829,920 trials (Exhaustive)
HandEquityWinsTies
20%58.72%220,060,19822,367,722
As6c41.28%151,402,00022,367,722

Against looser shoves we do better.  It is possible that our opponent is shoving a polarized range; propokertools hand rankings and mostly based on high card strength although KQ out ranks A9 and both outrank 66 so there is some consideration given to other factors. Ignoring this for now the question becomes what % of hands is our opponent shoving in this scenario? The hold'em resources calculator suggests 22.2% shoving range of 
"22.2%, 22+ A2s+ ATo+ K7s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J9s+ T8s+ 98s".

Hold'em Simulation ? 
306,502,416 trials (Exhaustive)
HandEquityWinsTies
22+, Ax2x+, AyTx+, Kx7x+, KxTy+, Qx8x+, QxTy+, Jx9x+, Tx8x+, 9x8x59.07%176,897,7958,283,354
Ac6h40.93%121,321,2678,283,354

Actually against this exact range we are just shy of the exact equity needed to make the call. It would essentially be a break even call. I think you probably need a slight amount of positive expected value to make calling better than folding since ceteris paribus you would want to choose the situation with less variance. So perhaps it was correct to fold vs UTG in this situation but vs any other position this should be a slam dunk call.

4 comments:

  1. I don't even know what half this shit means?

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  2. Give me an example when you say ..."it is possible that our opponent is shoving a polarized range"

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  3. polarized as in non congruent. so for example a non polarized range could be AA, KK, AK, QQ, JJ, TT. But a polarized range would be AA, KK, AK, QQ, 5h6h, 4c4d. So a combination of hands so excluding some hands in the middle.

    ReplyDelete
  4. polarized, as in at the poles (north and south), or top and bottom.

    ReplyDelete