o/8 call

Down to three in an o/8 SNG I got three bet by a tight aggressive player.

I have As7s3d5c.  I'm getting just over 1.25:1 so I need around 44% equity to make the call.

My opponents stats were tight aggressive.  Something like 25/17.  This was his first three bet but this stats are over an insignificant sample size (15 hands). Still they paint a picture of my opponent as tight and aggressive.

vs a 15% shoving range I have just about enough odds to call (source, propokertools o/8 simulator)

As7s3d5c	44.80%	161,466	249,227	25,021	166,546	53,268
15%	55.20%	230,839	325,752	25,021	92,629	53,26

vs a 10% shoving range

As7s3d5c	43.57%	154,082	249,328	20,869	156,283	53,242
10%	56.43%	237,156	329,803	20,869	103,090	53,242

vs 5%

As7s3d5c	41.38%	145,071	238,753	13,877	156,863	46,088
5%	58.62%	252,516	347,370	13,877	107,990	46,088

I am the short stack and kind of need to make a move.  I think over all it is close but perhaps slightly too loose.  Not surprisingly my opponent had A2j5 and held up.  Le sigh.

nash review 44

Plugging the preceding situation into my handy nash calculator it tells me to shove and this was my decision in game (no one called).  There are only four players behind me, since one is sitting out, but I do have around 20x the BB and there is only one short stack behind me so I do not think this is cut and dried.  One benefit of shoving is that it prevents someone from reraising three betting me.  I certainly do not want a hand like 98s to three bet me to 1500 and then be getting just under 2:1 if I shove, unless of course they are three bet folding. There is 600 to win immediately, or 1/8th of my stack and I likely have the best hand most of the time. Also my opponents can and perhaps should fold 55-99 to my shove.  The calculator suggests this :

5.9%, 88+ AJs+ AQo+

as a calling range for the player immediately after me in the CO.  I excluded the high jack from the simulation since he is sitting out.  One advantage to raise folding is that I can get away from the hand if it goes raise, reraise behind me, as this will make it pretty likely (though not a lock) that someone behind me has a bigger pair, although with only four people left to act this scenario is somewhat unlikely. 

I'm not sure what the cut off is for push / fold decisions, in terms of BB's in your stack.  My 19 bb stack looks somewhat smaller if you adjust for antes (12BB stack adjusted). My guess is that this is right on the border of where we can play push fold and where we should simply open for 2x. The tournament is also a knockout, so there is a premium for eliminating players, but I do not think that is a significant factor in this particular situation, with only one player shorter than me still to act. It would typically suggest slightly looser play vs stacks which are shorter than you.

The following chart from Wizard Of Odds gives the probability of a pair being beaten
http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/texas-hold-em/probability-pairs/

Probability Pair Beaten by Higher Pair

PAIR	2 PL.	3 PL.	4 PL.	5 PL.	6 PL.	7 PL.	8 PL.	9 PL.	10 PL.
KK	0.49%	0.977%	1.462%	1.945%	2.425%	2.903%	3.379%	3.852%	4.323%
QQ	0.98%	1.95%	2.91%	3.861%	4.803%	5.735%	6.659%	7.573%	8.479%
JJ	1.469%	2.917%	4.344%	5.749%	7.134%	8.499%	9.843%	11.168%	12.473%
TT	1.959%	3.88%	5.763%	7.609%	9.42%	11.194%	12.934%	14.64%	16.312%
99	2.449%	4.838%	7.168%	9.442%	11.66%	13.823%	15.934%	17.992%	20.001%
88	2.939%	5.791%	8.56%	11.247%	13.855%	16.387%	18.844%	21.229%	23.544%
77	3.429%	6.74%	9.937%	13.025%	16.007%	18.887%	21.668%	24.353%	26.947%
66	3.918%	7.683%	11.301%	14.776%	18.115%	21.324%	24.407%	27.369%	30.215%
55	4.408%	8.622%	12.65%	16.501%	20.181%	23.7%	27.063%	30.279%	33.352%
44	4.898%	9.556%	13.986%	18.199%	22.205%	26.016%	29.64%	33.086%	36.363%
33	5.388%	10.485%	15.308%	19.871%	24.188%	28.273%	32.137%	35.794%	39.253%
22	5.878%	11.41%	16.617%	21.517%	26.13%	30.472%	34.559%	38.405%	42.025%

13.986% is the number for our situation, 44 beaten by 4 players.  That makes us a 6:1 favourite to take down the pot and a 1:6 underdog to lose 60% of our stack (our opponent has a 60% edge on us as an 80:20 favourite).  Actually that's slightly facile analysis, we also have a 20% share of the current pot, so 60% of our stack but gain 100 from the pot.   So 1 time in 6 we lose roughly 3k (slightly less) and 5 times in 6 we win 600.  So it's break evenish.  Also 1 time in 4 we lose less, vs the sb.  and 55-88 might fold.  

So shoving is almost certainly +EV.  But what about raise folding or raise getting it in?  This is a more complicated analysis.  If we raise fold, we might get bluffed, or might induce a hand like 8s9s which actually has us beat 52.75% : 47.25%  to play.  There is also a chance a might three bet fold vs us, a real coup but a fairly unlikely scenario at these stack sizes.  One nice approach to taking a minimum raise with this hand is that we can take the same approach with bigger pairs, which we would like.  The strength of the nash approach, that you will take it down frequently, becomes a problem when you have a stronger hand like AA. We should take the same approach with AA as we do with 44, whatever we decide, lest we leave ourselves exploitable to our observant opponents. Even if this consideration is lesser in our present scenario it is important to build a consistent strategy for other games where this consideration becomes predominant.  We need to build healthy poker habits now.

Our stack size does seem slightly too large for the nash approach.  I'm not sure if there is a hard and fast rule for these scenarios.  Certainly 10x the BB or less qualifies and 20x the BB seems to large.  In between perhaps there is a grey area. This is a regular tournament, not a turbo, and that urges a slightly more patient approach.  We could also raise call vs sb and raise fold vs the other players, or raise fold vs co but raise get it in vs other players, especially BB, who has some incentive to push (no players behind him and money already in the pot). I suspect it may be better to simply shove at this stack size and this position but that any deeper and I must abandon Nash but I am certainly unsure of this conclusion.

QJo UTG in 51 hyper turbo.

I encountered the above situation earlier today and felt it was a close decision.  Plugging the numbers into the pushbot calculator at holdemresources.net it told me to push the following range :
16.9%, 55+ A3s+ A9o+ K9s+ KTo+ QTs+
So my on the spot analysis was correct, this is a very close decision but apparently just shy of the proper hand to push in this situation with these stacks and I did manage to find the fold on the felt.  

an overly tight fold

The above situation confronted me in a tournament yesterday and as you can see from the fact that my cards are grayed out, I folded.  In retrospect I think this was a slight mistake. First of all, the preflop raiser is simply opening.  When I three bet all in he may very well fold. While his stats indicate he is tight that is over a very small sample. A lot of the hands he would be flipping with me could very well fold to my reraise (a tremendous coup for myself) and I am losing only to TT, JJ, QQ, KK or AA (around 2.2% of hands).  So only around 8.514% of the time will and of the people acting after me wake up with a hand that has me crushed.  I estimate I have the initial raiser beat probably around 80% of the time as well. And both the preflop raiser (especially him) but also anyone behind me could call with a hand that I have beaten. In retrospect this is a clear reraise jam.

54hh in the BB

A situation arose yesterday when I was on the big blind with 54hh in the $11 NL $4k gtd tournament. The CO minraised and the Button called. So it's on me,getting just under 7:1 with 54hh. Should I call? After putting in the 1200 the CO had 20k, Button had 9,200 and I had 20k.
Blinds are 300/600.

I'm going to be out of position throughout the hand and I have both implied odds and reverse implied odds to consider. Should I call? If I do call what is my general post flop approach? One idea might be to check raise gin flops and perhaps check call if I flop a weak but possibly best made hand or a weak draw. I'm in good position to check raise; bad absolute position but good relative position. There is a decent chance that I am not dominated and will have wheel type flops to myself. And I'm getting a very good price from the pot. But I'm out of position and have two wheel cards.

Opponents stats are :

0/0/0/0 over 12 hands (CO)
25/9/3.0/3.3 over 87 hands.

VPIP/PFR/AGG factor/3 bet.

Limited sample size so they don't tell us too much but they do begin to paint a picture of two TAG opponents.  I've posted this situation on 2+2 also.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/23/small-stakes-mtt/54hh-bb-1532593/#post46960015

aces full in the muck

This hand illustrates an important principle, which is that in Pot Limit Omaha you should not be three betting a lot out of position. Actually my decision to flat here is not obviously the right play.  I could three bet. Three betting is a viable approach, perhaps continuing on disconnected boards as well as 'good' flops. If I three bet my opponent can four bet, which would be an incredible result since I would then be able to get more than half my stack in preflop.  I'm also going to kick player 4 out of the pot most likely.  Another argument for three betting is effective stack sizes are 80 bb deep, so somewhat shallow.  And my opponent is in steal position, so he could easily have a weak hand or not put me on aces when I three bet.  But the main problem my hand has, and the reason why I flat, is because for the rest of the hand I will talk first. This puts me at a severe disadvantage, so I flat, in the vain hope that Player 4 three bets (they never do), or, I could flop something huge.

I decide to take over the initiative on the flop. Heads up I would check raise here but three way, with the player with the initiative last to act I prefer to lead out, to ensure that no one can pot control this flop.  Mostly I am targeting a ten with my bet since a flush draw generally will not peel with a paired board.  Since this is a lockdown board there is no need to bet too much.  In fact just under half pot might be too much.  1/3rd might be better.  I generally bet 1/2 pot or 2/3rds pot as a matter of style, depending on the board, but if I raise I typically raise full pot.  When my opponent calls I assume he's got a ten.  A flush draw is possible as well or a full house or quads.  He could even have an inside wrap, theoretically.

 There might be merit to checking the turn.  It could be difficult for Txxx to continue, fearing the possibility that I have a full house or a ten with a better kicker and some of his kickers tied.  Or a ten with a flush and some of his kickers tied.  On the other hand if he was drawing to a flush it's unlikely that he would be folding it on this street and of course I want to increase the amount of money in the pot.  A check raise would allow me to play for stacks whereas continuing to half pot will not. But a flush might fold to a check raise while planning to call turn and river if I simply continue to bet.  In the long run it really doesn't matter how you play rare hands like aces full, since they are so infrequent.
 
The river is the only bad card in the deck (the other ten presumably being in his hand).  My opponent's flop play pegs him for a ten, so I can fold.  If he is turning a flush into a bluff to try to get a higher flush to fold then props to him.  Most likely I am beat.

AA78ds

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/14399680_3279A9B89F


Double suited aces are the strongest hand you can have in Omaha and it is only natural to raise with them in order to build a pot and so that you can rereraise if any of your opponents are foolish enough to reraise you. In live PLO games it is often more advisable to simply limp or flat your aces, because three betting is very uncommon and your opponents will be apt to put you on aces if you do take an aggressive action pre flop, but in this situation a raise seems like the best play. AA78ds is likely to flop well and it's important to start building a pot.  With 100 bbs we will be likely to four bet to a committing amount if someone reraises us.  A general rule of thumb is that if you can get 1/3rd of your stack in preflop with aces, you should, and then stack off after the flop.  But what if you can get in 27% of your stack?  Or if it goes 3, 4 or 5 way to the flop?  What then?  Should AAk6 no suit require a higher threshold of % of stack raised before you can safely commit to any flop, such as 40%?  and should AAJTds be reraised and stacked off with at a smaller % of your stack?  Or should it be reraised under any and all circumstances?  Unfortunately I am not three bet and we go three to the flop.

The flop is bad for me.  I have but a sole nut out, the ace of hearts.  Nut outs, and also the concept of good vs bad nut outs is important in omaha.  take the example of a board which is JhTh4s.  You are drawing to open ended with KcQc2c2s.  The As is a worse nut out than the Ad or Ac since you could end up more easily freerolled by the spade flush redraw. So I have a pair of aces, a weak non nut gutshot, and a backdoor flush draw.  Should I bet the flop?  Player 2 has shown weakness by checking, but he could easily be trying to check raise the preflop raiser, me, hoping that if I choose to check then Player 5 could take advantage of my presumed weakness and stab himself.  The jack and 9 are right in the play zone so this is the sort of flop my opponents could easily have.  As the player with the initiative my bet is always slightly suspect.  The situation is tenuous at best and it's difficult to find fault with a check.

After this I turn a set, Player 5 checks back the flop and Player 2 checks the turn. My opponents are showing weakness and my hand has significantly improved. It's possible someone could fold a low flush and if I am behind I will still improve somewhere around 22% of the time.  If either of my opponents have the nut flush or a high flush they would most likely have bet somewhere.  A king or queen high flush draw on the flop would usually also connect with the J9 in terms of a wrap, pair + straight draw, or two pair, unless the hand was massively disconnected.  And my opponents have been checking.  In poker you generally want to attack against weakness and bet when your opponents check, whether you are strong or weak.

If one of my opponents had called the turn, their most likely hand would be a flush.  Should I then try to bluff them on the river?  In general you want to try to bluff weak hands, not strong ones, so if they do call I should plan to check fold the river unless I fill up.  Then I should bet for value, around 1/3rd of the pot.

pokerstars hand analysis #1

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/14399625_3469F0A712

Preflop the decision to check seems fairly standard.  Though both of my opponents are likely to have weak hands, since they both declined to raise (although they could certainly be limping strong hands and this possibility cannot be overlooked) I will be out of position against the button and this disadvantage is overwhelming.  Luckily the button neglected to take advantage of his positional advantage and raise.  What should I do if the button had raised, either if the sb had called or if it were heads up?  Despite a king high suit, moderate high card value and decent, though imperfect connectivity my opinion is that my positional disadvantage negates these previously listed positive attributes and in that hypothetical scenario I should fold.  But the button and SB limped, so to the flop we go.

The flop is very good for my hand and a bet seems obvious.  The SB had shown weakness, by checking, and I have two decent non nut draws (gutshot + FD) and a weak made hand (jacks king kicker). It's fairly important in omaha to only draw to the nuts but in this situation my hand is subjectively powerful.  What should we do if the button pots it?  In that case we would really have two options, fold or call.  Raising vs someone who is aggressively contesting a limped pot with this hand seems overly optimistic.  Most likely he is raising with a strong made hand or strong draw. Either scenario has us at quite a disadvantage, especially consider that his button limp marks him for the passive type.  Unfortunately I did not have much information on my opponent at this time. Against a button raise after I lead the flop I should fold.  Since my outs are non nut I could hit my hand and lose, and if I hit my hand I will not be comfortable trying to extract a lot of money if I do hit.  But a button raise is so scary in this spot precisely because it is so rare and you shouldn't allow a fear of your opponents raising you from preventing you from taking the proper aggressive action in situations which warrant it. But it is important to plan ahead and consider what could happen if your opponents take particular actions.

When my opponent bets out on the turn their most likely hand is a flush.  Perhaps, because they are so short, I should simply put them all in. My thinking at the time was that they might fold on the turn if I raise, and they are likely drawing dead with a smaller flush, but perhaps they would not fold even a very weak flush.  They could be bluffing the flush, in which case calling is superior.  If they somehow turned 44 then I should raise.  Most likely a flopped set would have bet or check raised on the flop, but if they do have a set or two pair then I should raise the turn.  I think my turn play is fine and not necessarily superior or inferior to raising.  Folding should not be considered.  My hand is both subjectively and objectively strong and slightly disguised.

When my opponent pushed all in on the river I was confused and called without much consideration. In general I do not take enough time thinking about my decisions at the poker table.  This is an area where I need to improve.  I was also confused.  Surely my hand looks more like a full house than my opponents.  Were they simply saying 'f it, I'm short stack, I'm all in'?  In retrospect their holding makes sense.  Of course 90% of the time the river doesn't pair and I probably stack my opponent. Could I have avoided paying off this river bet? There is also much soul searching after a losing hand.