Tuesday, May 12, 2015

pokerstars hand analysis #1

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/14399625_3469F0A712

Preflop the decision to check seems fairly standard.  Though both of my opponents are likely to have weak hands, since they both declined to raise (although they could certainly be limping strong hands and this possibility cannot be overlooked) I will be out of position against the button and this disadvantage is overwhelming.  Luckily the button neglected to take advantage of his positional advantage and raise.  What should I do if the button had raised, either if the sb had called or if it were heads up?  Despite a king high suit, moderate high card value and decent, though imperfect connectivity my opinion is that my positional disadvantage negates these previously listed positive attributes and in that hypothetical scenario I should fold.  But the button and SB limped, so to the flop we go.

The flop is very good for my hand and a bet seems obvious.  The SB had shown weakness, by checking, and I have two decent non nut draws (gutshot + FD) and a weak made hand (jacks king kicker). It's fairly important in omaha to only draw to the nuts but in this situation my hand is subjectively powerful.  What should we do if the button pots it?  In that case we would really have two options, fold or call.  Raising vs someone who is aggressively contesting a limped pot with this hand seems overly optimistic.  Most likely he is raising with a strong made hand or strong draw. Either scenario has us at quite a disadvantage, especially consider that his button limp marks him for the passive type.  Unfortunately I did not have much information on my opponent at this time. Against a button raise after I lead the flop I should fold.  Since my outs are non nut I could hit my hand and lose, and if I hit my hand I will not be comfortable trying to extract a lot of money if I do hit.  But a button raise is so scary in this spot precisely because it is so rare and you shouldn't allow a fear of your opponents raising you from preventing you from taking the proper aggressive action in situations which warrant it. But it is important to plan ahead and consider what could happen if your opponents take particular actions.

When my opponent bets out on the turn their most likely hand is a flush.  Perhaps, because they are so short, I should simply put them all in. My thinking at the time was that they might fold on the turn if I raise, and they are likely drawing dead with a smaller flush, but perhaps they would not fold even a very weak flush.  They could be bluffing the flush, in which case calling is superior.  If they somehow turned 44 then I should raise.  Most likely a flopped set would have bet or check raised on the flop, but if they do have a set or two pair then I should raise the turn.  I think my turn play is fine and not necessarily superior or inferior to raising.  Folding should not be considered.  My hand is both subjectively and objectively strong and slightly disguised.

When my opponent pushed all in on the river I was confused and called without much consideration. In general I do not take enough time thinking about my decisions at the poker table.  This is an area where I need to improve.  I was also confused.  Surely my hand looks more like a full house than my opponents.  Were they simply saying 'f it, I'm short stack, I'm all in'?  In retrospect their holding makes sense.  Of course 90% of the time the river doesn't pair and I probably stack my opponent. Could I have avoided paying off this river bet? There is also much soul searching after a losing hand.

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