Wednesday, May 13, 2015

aces full in the muck

This hand illustrates an important principle, which is that in Pot Limit Omaha you should not be three betting a lot out of position. Actually my decision to flat here is not obviously the right play.  I could three bet. Three betting is a viable approach, perhaps continuing on disconnected boards as well as 'good' flops. If I three bet my opponent can four bet, which would be an incredible result since I would then be able to get more than half my stack in preflop.  I'm also going to kick player 4 out of the pot most likely.  Another argument for three betting is effective stack sizes are 80 bb deep, so somewhat shallow.  And my opponent is in steal position, so he could easily have a weak hand or not put me on aces when I three bet.  But the main problem my hand has, and the reason why I flat, is because for the rest of the hand I will talk first. This puts me at a severe disadvantage, so I flat, in the vain hope that Player 4 three bets (they never do), or, I could flop something huge.

I decide to take over the initiative on the flop. Heads up I would check raise here but three way, with the player with the initiative last to act I prefer to lead out, to ensure that no one can pot control this flop.  Mostly I am targeting a ten with my bet since a flush draw generally will not peel with a paired board.  Since this is a lockdown board there is no need to bet too much.  In fact just under half pot might be too much.  1/3rd might be better.  I generally bet 1/2 pot or 2/3rds pot as a matter of style, depending on the board, but if I raise I typically raise full pot.  When my opponent calls I assume he's got a ten.  A flush draw is possible as well or a full house or quads.  He could even have an inside wrap, theoretically.

 There might be merit to checking the turn.  It could be difficult for Txxx to continue, fearing the possibility that I have a full house or a ten with a better kicker and some of his kickers tied.  Or a ten with a flush and some of his kickers tied.  On the other hand if he was drawing to a flush it's unlikely that he would be folding it on this street and of course I want to increase the amount of money in the pot.  A check raise would allow me to play for stacks whereas continuing to half pot will not. But a flush might fold to a check raise while planning to call turn and river if I simply continue to bet.  In the long run it really doesn't matter how you play rare hands like aces full, since they are so infrequent.
 
The river is the only bad card in the deck (the other ten presumably being in his hand).  My opponent's flop play pegs him for a ten, so I can fold.  If he is turning a flush into a bluff to try to get a higher flush to fold then props to him.  Most likely I am beat.

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